ارزیابی عوامل مؤثر بر امنیت غذایی در استان کرمانشاه (کاربرد تکنیک رگرسیون کوانتایل)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه توسعه اقتصادی و برنامه ریزی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

2 رئیس پژوهشکده اقتصاد و دانشیار اقتصاد، گروه توسعه و برنامه‎ریزی اقتصادی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

چکیده

امروزه با گسترش نابرابری در مناطق مختلف جهان، اقشار مختلف جوامع با نا اطمینانی در فراهم نمودن نیازهای زندگی روبرو هستند که یکی از این نیازها امنیت غذایی است. بر اساس نقشه جهانی امنیت غذایی، کشور ایران جزو مناطق پرخطر محسوب می‎شود. در این راستا، در مطالعه حاضر جهت بررسی امنیت غذایی استان کرمانشاه از شاخص FSI و روش رگرسیون کوانتایل برای سال‎های 96-5813 و در دو سناریو استفاده شده است. نتایج پژوهش حاکی از آن است که در هر دو سناریو، امنیت غذایی استان کرمانشاه به طور مستقیم با عرضه سرانه کالری، رشد سالانه کالری سرانه، شاخص تولید محصولات غذایی، شاخص خودکفایی و به طور غیرمستقیم با تغییرات در مصرف در ارتباط است، اما میزان و شدت این ارتباط در چندک‎ها و اقشار مختلف جامعه متفاوت است. بر اساس نتایج این پژوهش، اجرای سیاست‎هایی که منجر به توسعه اشتغال در این استان گردد، می تواند در کنار رفع سایر معضلات اقتصادی و اجتماعی در این استان، به بهبود امنیت غذایی هم کمک کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluating the Factors Affecting Food Security in Kermanshah province (Application of Quantile Regression Technique)

نویسندگان [English]

  • naeim shokri 1
  • A. Assari Arani 2
1 Department of Economic Development and Planning, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modarres University, Tehran, Iran
2 Head of the Research Institute of Economics and Associate Professor of Economics, Department of Economic Development and Planning, Faculty of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Today, with the spread of inequality in different parts of the world, societies face uncertainty about the needs of life, one of them is food security. Iran is considered as a high-risk region, and the difference in food security across the provinces of the country is widely visible.. In the present study, FSI index and Quantile Regression method were used in the years 1979-2017 based on two scenarios to study Food Security in Kermanshah Province. The results of this study indicate that in both scenarios, Food Security in Kermanshah province is directly related to calorie per capita, annual calorie per capita growth, food production index, self-sufficiency index, and indirectly to consumption changes. But the amount and intensity of the relationship between the quantiles are different. According to the results of this study, implementation of policies that lead to the development of employment in this province can help to improve food security.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Food Security
  • Kermanshah Province
  • Quantile Regression
  • FSI Index
  • Self-Sufficiency Index
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